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Monday, May 23, 2022

Luck Undermines Skill

 After winning a "string of pearls" ("0" points) tonight in cribbage, I'm meditating on "luck."  I've noticed  that some times I can do no wrong.  I win.  Analyzing those times leads to no conclusion.  Luck doesn't depend on how much or little sleep one has.  Nor does it matter whether one is thinking positive thoughts. Anyone walking outside during a thunderstorm must have been thinking positive thoughts, until they were struck by lightening. 

But let's go back to playing cribbage.  If I am skilled and am experienced, then I should win, right.  Then explain beginner's luck.  Why wouldn't the most skilled player win most of the time?  It is said, that cribbage is 10% skill and 90% luck.  Those aren't good odds.  But it does offer hope to poor players.

Card players will say they're lucky or unlucky, today.  "Why", is a futile question.  Luck is random.  But if you are winning, then don't change anything.  Use the same cards, don't change your seat, or anything.  However, next week you can wear the same clothes, use the same cards and sit in the same seat, and you lose. Luck is fickle.

 The conclusion is that there just seems to be no plausible explanation.  So what should I do about it? Since luck is unforeseeable, maybe I should not try

to be lucky, but rather aim to be"good" at what I am doing.  Play cribbage the best that I can and if I lose, consider that I played poorly, or that I was beaten by a better player.  I should learn by these mistakes.  Of course, when I get a string of pearls, like today, there's no explanation except I had no luck.  That doesn't make me feel better; I'd rather be lucky than skilled.

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